What the Democrats’ campaign turmoil means for business

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ALEX THOMPSON: There’s this frame that is like, “Oh, Biden bowed out gracefully,” and that’s not what happened here. Joe Biden was pushed out of this race by the Democratic Party and by leaders of the Democratic Party. It has surprised me how quickly every leader of the Democratic Party has endorsed Kamala Harris. Top Democrats had signaled publicly and privately that they prefer to have at least some sort of a competition rather than a coronation. And really the story that people should be paying attention to in the next month is Kamala Harris is not just going to let the Biden campaign run as it was before. But she also doesn’t want to change it enough that it falls to the ground. 

BOB SAFIAN: That’s Alex Thompson, national political correspondent for Axios. With Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the U.S. presidential election and the subsequent wave of endorsements for Kamala Harris, I wanted to better understand how the sudden U-turn within the Democratic party will impact voters as well as businesses. Axios has been a source of some of the most insightful 2024 campaign coverage, and Alex has deep access to the Biden White House. Alex shares behind the scenes info. on what’s driven the dramatic changes of the past few days, plus the role of business leaders going forward, how the Harris 2024 enterprise is going into start-up mode, and more. The road ahead is still unclear, but Alex gives us some signposts to help orient us. I’m Bob Safian, and this is Rapid Response. 

I’m Bob Safian. I’m here with Alex Thompson, national political correspondent for Axios. Alex, thanks for joining us.

THOMPSON: So good to be here. 

Copy LinkReactions to Joe Biden dropping out of the Presidential race

SAFIAN: So, wild last 24 hours or so. It’s Monday evening, and we are really not sure exactly what’s going to happen with the Democratic nominee. Although you knew all this was coming, right? How did you find out? 

THOMPSON: I found out sitting right where I’m at right now. Working in the afternoon, I was tempted to go see a movie and go wild with my social life by doing so by myself.

SAFIAN: Wild, wild, yes.

THOMPSON: I was going to go see Twisters. I was very excited for it. And I was like, yeah, I got some stuff to do. And so, you know, the way I thought about it is that my head said that he was going to drop out, but my heart just didn’t think he was just because I didn’t know how he was going to get there psychologically.

You know, Joe Biden’s, if you would call it a, superpower is sort of his resilience. And the fact that when he’s knocked down, he likes to keep going. I also think he really believed he was the most electable person against Donald Trump, even as the rest of the party and lots of his friends were saying otherwise. And I was a little bit surprised that he would sort of just say, you know, cry-uncle after Nancy Pelosi really was saying it’s time for you to go.

SAFIAN: I have to say that I, you know, from the moment I was watching that debate, I thought like, ‘this guy’s gotta go.’ And yet this morning I woke up, and I was a little bit, like, sad for him and for his family a little bit. You know, like, emotionally, as you say, it’s a hard thing to turn away from.

THOMPSON: There’s a lot of sadness and anger among people that have worked for Joe Biden in the past. People that weren’t around, you know, this last six months. People that, you know, a lot of these people gave up a lot of the prime of their lives working for this man, whether or not he was in the Senate or the Vice Presidency. And I think the reason it’s full of sadness and anger is because they obviously are sad that it’s over. They’re sad that it’s over in this way where you have an incumbent president basically giving up power four months beforehand because a significant part of the population no longer believes he is capable.

But I think that the anger really comes from a place of: how did the people that spent time with him frequently let him get on the debate stage? This was not the first time he had acted that way, and why did the people that were spending time with him every single day, which was a small crew, let him get on that debate stage and get to this point?

Copy LinkWhat’s unfolded since Biden dropped out

SAFIAN: So this news comes yesterday afternoon. It’s now Monday evening. In the time since then, I mean, it’s been kind of crazy what’s unfolded as you expected and what surprised you. 

THOMPSON: It surprised me how quickly every leader of the Democratic Party has endorsed Kamala Harris. Nancy Pelosi and several other top Democrats had signaled publicly and privately that they prefer to have at least some sort of a competition rather than a coronation. The fact that, at least as of this taping, Kamala Harris has appeared to mostly wrap this nomination up within, you know, 30 hours, it did surprise me. I thought that, you know, given her performance in the 2020 campaign, and given sort of some of the unevenness of her vice presidency. Plus, you know, I can tell you like Joe Biden and his senior team, their concerns about her, despite what I just said, I’m not totally surprised that Joe Biden endorsed her. 

Take the politics out of it, think about Joe Biden as a person. You know, loyalty is the highest virtue in Biden-world. Which is also part of the reason why he was offended by his perception that he was more loyal to Obama than Obama was to him. And was offended by what he saw as Obama preferring Hillary to him in 2016. I don’t think it’s, knowing Joe Biden, not so surprising that he endorsed Kamala Harris, but I guess I was surprised that the rest of the party went along so fast.

SAFIAN: The parlor game that began almost immediately yesterday afternoon of like, what might happen and who might it be and the whole idea of a more open convention — all that, it’s like that’s trying to be squashed down really quickly. 

THOMPSON: The Democratic Party has made clear they want, after what truly was an agonizing three and a half weeks for the party, they just want to have a nominee and just have this news cycle from hell be over. The thing that’s, again, surprising is, you know, we haven’t really heard from Harris in a while. I mean, most of our events are very tightly controlled. They’re friendly environments on friendly issues. We really haven’t seen her do a tough interview for a while. And what happens if in like a week or two, she finally does a big sit down, and she’s a mess. Then I think there might be some buyer’s remorse, but also maybe like there’s not that much time to election day, and Democrats want to get on with organizing and trying to beat Trump and in which case, you know, having this very fast coordination makes a lot of sense.

Copy LinkWhat happens to the money that Joe Biden raised?

SAFIAN: How much leeway was there with the money that was there for Biden? The delegates that were posted by, I mean, did those automatically revert to her or was there actually more flexibility? Is there still flexibility?

THOMPSON: There definitely was flexibility. I think if Joe Biden had not explicitly endorsed her, this would be a very different thing. And you saw some prominent Democrats resist the momentum. Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, all did not endorse her yesterday. That was intentional to see how this would play out.

SAFIAN: It was like a waterfall today, you know? 

THOMPSON: Exactly. The money thing is complicated because the DNC has a hundred plus million dollars cash on hand, and that can be used for any Democratic nominee. The Biden/Harris team also has a hundred million dollars-ish in hard money. And some lawyers argue, while Biden’s dropped out, because Harris is on the ticket, she can use it as Harris for president. And there are some people less of, it’s a minority opinion that says like, “no, you actually can’t do that.” And there are some people that say like, “it doesn’t matter if it’s Harris or the nominee, you can actually transfer that money to the DNC anyway.” This is the first election cycle between the Trump trials and Hunter’s trials where my mom was finally correct in suggesting I go to law school.

Copy LinkHow important are endorsements from billionaires?

SAFIAN: As a show that focuses on business, one of the things that we’ve been reflecting on is that sort of the level of attention paid to business leaders positions on candidates. Like one of the early New York Times stories yesterday highlighted that LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman had endorsed Harris. Reid hosts a sister podcast to this one. Like since when did the billionaire class count as an endorsement, you know, in the same way that a political leader would?

THOMPSON: It is sort of strange. I mean, some of this is, you know, the post-Citizens United world can have such a huge effect. I think Elon Musk, last week the Wall Street Journal reported, would do 40 plus million dollars in a super PAC backing Trump. And, you know, you have these people of immense wealth being able to fuel tens of millions of dollars in campaigns, and that means it’s worthy of tracking them. I think it’s this strange dynamic that we just increasingly just accept as normal, but maybe is a bit off.

SAFIAN: And so whether it’s Silicon Valley folks, Elon Musk or Reid or even Jamie Dimon, like you really think it’s all about the money. It’s not necessarily that there’s other influence because, you know, it matters what business leaders think.

THOMPSON: I think there’s probably some of that, in the same way that, you know, how many voters really care that Sherrod Brown endorsed Kamala Harris? Don’t know, but Sherrod Brown is like an influential figure among a certain group of people, and it’s a signal to them, and they’re like, you know, a powerful group of people. Sherrod Brown is the Senator of Ohio, if people don’t know. And like, I think, you know, Reid Hoffman is sort of the same, where he is a signal to other people in his sort of influential group, and that is why it is important. That being said, you know, some of it I think just has to do with the money.

Copy LinkHow the Democratic Party is adjusting without Biden

SAFIAN: So, on this show, when we talk about start-ups, we sometimes use this analogy of how start-ups are like jumping off a cliff and building a plane on the way down. And it seems like that’s kind of what this Democratic campaign is forced to do, you know, even though the Democratic Party is not historically an agile, fast moving operation. Do you have a sense about how the party is trying to build the plane in this moment?

THOMPSON: Yeah. I’d say the metaphor is a bit tweaked in this scenario because you did have a plan that was flying, and you could argue it wasn’t flying very well, but, like, the Biden-for-president reelection campaign, it was airborne, right? Then basically the debate turned into, you know, multiple engine failure, like a steep dive. And now they’re in a situation where maybe they’ve leveled out, but still like an engine or two is out. So I guess to continue the metaphor way too long is that they are trying to fix the campaign while they are airborne and very close to the ground. And that is what Kamala Harris and her team is going to try to do. 

And really the story that people should be paying attention to in the next month is Kamala Harris is not just going to let the Biden campaign run as it was before. But she also doesn’t want to change it enough that it falls to the ground. How are the ways that she changes how the campaign was operating, who does she install that she trusts, but also how does she do it in a way that does not necessarily create, sort of a free fall?

SAFIAN: Was one of the advantages or I guess disadvantages of someone other than Kamala Harris that you would have to build a whole new plane if there were some other ticket?

THOMPSON: Yes. And you’re exactly right that it comes with advantages and disadvantages, especially given we are now four months before election day. And this is why Joe Biden’s debate basically left the Democratic Party with no good options. You know, you could keep Joe Biden’s ticket. That’s not a great option. You could replace him with Vice President Kamala Harris who’d had sort of an unsteady record, but would inherit the plane, as rickety as it was. Or you could try to open up the process, and let new people build their own plane. But the problem is they only have four months to do so, and, you know, Donald Trump declared for president 18, 19, 20 months ago, and has a 20 month head start in building his own plane.

SAFIAN: Yeah, I guess I was a little surprised because maybe this is just the storyteller or the media person in me that, like, as painful as the media story has been for the Democrats over the last three and a half weeks, keeping the suspense of who would be on the ticket, you know, like that’s a great story. And you get a lot of attention, and you sort of take up a lot of air. That keeps that attention away from Trump and the Republicans. 

THOMPSON: Yeah, there was definitely an argument I heard from Democratic operatives, including operatives close to potential presidential candidates, that believed an open convention, as chaotic as it would be, would actually be the least bad option of the bad options available for this reason, is that you would grab eyeballs, attention, and you’d bring energy, right, to a party that really needed it. As chaotic as the campaign might end up being, it would be just like this adrenaline. 

SAFIAN: I mean, listen, if there’s anything Trump has taught us, right, it’s that getting attention is an art form that works, you know?

THOMPSON: I think the thesis of Trump’s life is that all attention is good attention. 

SAFIAN: The battle for America’s future may well hinge on who can best grab America’s attention. Politics is a marketplace after all, and Joe Biden was in effect, failing as a salesman. After the break, Alex shares what Kamala Harris has to overcome in her sales efforts, why risk-taking is in short supply for both parties, and how he finds clarity amid the noise of the news cycle. Stay with us.

[AD BREAK]

Before the break, national political correspondent for Axios, Alex Thompson, explored the impact of Sunday’s jaw-dropping political news. Now, Alex talks about what Kamala Harris has to overcome, key advantages that Trump holds, and how the outcome of the presidential race may depend on risk-taking. Let’s dive back in. 

Copy LinkBiden’s confidence in Kamala Harris

You had a scoop early today that Biden sort of initially didn’t think Kamala Harris could win. Was that in part because he didn’t feel like she could generate that attention? Like do you have a sense about why he had that concern about her?

THOMPSON: Yeah, I think there’s three parts to it. One is his own ego, right? Where he had sort of convinced himself that he was the indispensable man. The second part is that they’re just very different people and very different generations. And I think, in some ways, Biden didn’t completely appreciate her skills because his skills are so about, like, being a politician from Delaware — it’s all about how many hands can you shake? Because you can basically shake everyone’s hand in the state.

And then the most uncharitable explanation towards Kamala Harris is that, you know, Biden was just really not wowed by her performance the last three and a half years. And there was this feeling that she churned through staff to an incredible extent. I can give you one stat: So, you know, about half of the vice president’s staff is paid through the Senate, and that requires staff disclosures. So we don’t have the full staff, but we have a significant portion of it. The 47 people that were on her Senate staff disclosure at the beginning of her term, of those 47, only five are still there.

SAFIAN: Wow. Yeah.

THOMPSON: DC is a churning place. So like I compared it to vice president Biden’s first term — same period of time of the Obama administration’s first term. Of the 38 people that started with Joe Biden at the beginning of the Obama term, 17 were still there at the same period of time. So this is an abnormal level of churn and staff turnover. The vice president has, also at times with regards to migration and other issues, the White House felt that she walked away from responsibility rather than embraced it and, you know, was not always a team player as she was looking out for her political future. You know, Kamala Harris’ team at times felt that the White House was almost intentionally not trying to give her clear wins. Again, this is from the Harris side. They never had evidence, but it was a feeling that the White House didn’t want her to be seen as a clear alternative going into a re-election where there were some doubts about Biden.

SAFIAN: Yet he chose to endorse her, despite all of that.

THOMPSON: And yet he chose to endorse her. I think the thing to remember is there’s this frame that is like, “Oh, Biden bowed out gracefully,” and that’s not what happened here. Joe Biden did not want to bow out of this race. I think, just listen to every single appearance he’s had the last four weeks since the debate. Joe Biden was pushed out of this race by the Democratic Party and by leaders of the Democratic Party. And then once he decided, ‘okay, I’m getting out of this race,’ then he basically just has a decision: Do I endorse Kamala or not? And based on what we talked about with this loyalty code, I think he basically said, ‘I prefer to endorse Harris rather than not.’

Copy Link“The strongest position Donald Trump has ever been in”

SAFIAN: We still have a long road to go before the election. There’s so much noise right now. So much feels like it’s changing, and it’s unstable, and it’s unknown. And, you know, as we say, just over the last 30 hours. What do you hold on to as firm in this moment about where the party is, and where the election is overall, or can you not? Do you just need to be, like, reactive and attentive and see where it all goes? 

THOMPSON: That’s a great question. If you are any candidate in this race, you want to be Donald Trump right now. The fact is that this is probably the strongest position Donald Trump has been in, in his entire short political career. The Republican Party is more united behind him than ever. He is also not in the midst of a once in a century pandemic. And, you know, there is a world in which we think back where, you know, even though Trump was dealing with COVID, he only lost by 45,000 votes across three states. There’s also a world in which, you know, the country just after the sort of dual traumas of COVID and what happened with the economy is much more risk averse, they’re not happy with the status quo, but they’re actually much more risk averse, they’re wary of change. At least the sort of change Trump is promising, even though both candidates are not talking about COVID at all. I think COVID is sort of this factor in how people are deciding.

SAFIAN: It’s really interesting that the Democratic Party doesn’t yet have a real cohesive story of the future that’s different from the present. You are right. They’re just riding on like, ‘here’s where we are right now. Let’s just keep keeping this line.’

THOMPSON: Well, and that’s the risk of picking Kamala Harris as your nominee, is that she is not distinct from the current administration. She is inextricably tied to this administration. And you’ve already seen the first ad from the Trump super PAC was very focused on basically saying she is Joe Biden. 

And I think the Democratic party, especially elites in the Democratic Party, after the debate have convinced themselves that all the problems they have are only Biden’s age and not to their record. And the Trump campaign is saying, like, “there’s also problems with your record.” And we will see how the Democratic Party responds to that and how voters respond to that. And we honestly don’t know.

SAFIAN: Well, Alex, very thoughtful of you to join us, and I hope we’ll keep this conversation going. It’s a crazy, crazy time to know what to do and what to think. Thanks for helping clear it up a little bit as much as we can for our listeners.

THOMPSON: So fun to be on.

SAFIAN: Thank you.

This presidential election season is unfolding like a season of Succession. There’s one twist after another, and predicting where things will end up is anyone’s guess. What’s striking to me in Alex’s observations is how risk-averse both parties seem to be: Republicans harking back to the past, Democrats trying to hold onto the present. Neither seem particularly focused on the future–which of course is where we’re all headed. We’ll see if that shifts as the campaign evolves in the weeks ahead. Regardless, the future is where businesses and business leaders need to keep their focus. I’m Bob Safian. Thanks for listening.