Business world predictions for 2026

BOB SAFIAN: Hey everyone, Bob Safian here. Welcome to a special episode of Rapid Response. We’re going to do a slightly different format. And for that, I’m joined by someone who I have eagerly, eagerly wanted to introduce to you on the show. It’s Rapid Response’s producer, my colleague and friend, Alex Morris. Alex?

ALEX MORRIS: Hey everyone.

Copy LinkIntroducing Bob’s 2026 predictions

SAFIAN: So what are we going to do?

MORRIS: Well, Bob, you have an article of your predictions for 2026 running on Fast Company. We are actually going to link to it in our show notes, but for now anyway, I wanted to dig through it with you.

SAFIAN: So you’re going to interview me then? I get to be on the hot seat.

MORRIS: Yes, that’s right. We’re turning the tables.

SAFIAN: I can’t wait.

MORRIS: This is the first time that we’ve done this on the show before. And, I’m curious to know, what was the impetus? What was the inspiration for you to even start to work on these?

SAFIAN: I was thinking back to a story that I wrote as a reporter back in the day, let’s say. I did a profile of a market strategist on Wall Street, this guy named Byron Ween, who at that point worked at Morgan Stanley. And, he did annual predictions, 10 predictions for the year ahead. And it always got a lot of attention.  That was one thing, but listening to him talk about how he thought about the predictions, that some of the predictions were purposely a little bit outlandish, because he wanted to spark dialogue. So, that’s the spirit that I bring to this. I don’t have a crystal ball. I’m not going to have everything be right here, but I do hope that some of the topics that you and I get to talk about, and I write about in this Fast Company post get people’s wheels spinning about what might be possible in the year ahead.

MORRIS: Well, let’s get started then.

SAFIAN: All right.

Copy LinkPrediction 1: Tech stocks will stall

MORRIS: With your first prediction, it’s interesting because Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple all had stronger earnings reports than many expected. And yet, your first prediction is that you believe tech stocks will stall this year. How’s that?

SAFIAN: Yeah. I know. I know. And listen, I’m not the only one who’s saying that maybe there’s an AI bubble. I realize that, but I do feel like this is a surprise. If you look at the way people are actually investing, these stocks have not gone down. They are the center of the stock market. I don’t presume that they may not continue to be the center of the stock market, but there is a lot of hope and possibility in these AI, particularly related names. And, the end users of AI right now, the average company, is not necessarily getting tremendous value out of AI. I don’t presume to say that they won’t ultimately, but the end user of what Nvidia is creating is not showing a lot of value. And at some point, that’s got to be reckoned with. And so that’s why I think these highly valued stocks that are valued for perfection, they may stall. Again, it doesn’t mean they’re going to crash, but having a lot of headroom above them seems less likely to be at this point.

MORRIS: It makes me think of when you spoke to Grant Lafontaine on the show a few months ago.

SAFIAN: The CEO of Whatnot. Yeah.

MORRIS: Where he was talking about how he feels pressure to work a lot with AI, even though it’s not necessarily solving a customer issue for him at the moment. And I’m curious whether you feel like more broadly this investment in AI before value is seen, how much of that is peer pressure throughout tech?

SAFIAN: I think it’s peer pressure, not just tech, but also for any company, because the investment markets are so obsessed with the value you’re getting from AI. I mean, I think the big turn for AI’s impact will be when it’s generating new ideas and new revenue and not just marginal cost savings. I think what is happening a little bit right now is that companies are hoping they can generate enough cost savings from some smaller implementations of AI, and then they can use that money for more experimentation that could end up bringing more innovation. But we haven’t reached that stage yet. And so, there’s a lot of caution quietly, not necessarily when I’m recording with all of these CEOs. Grant was willing to say it, but certainly more quietly, I think there’s some more uncertainty about, “Well, what’s the impact really going to be on my bottom line on my business?” Certainly over the next 12 months.

Copy LinkPrediction 2: AI will be an excuse for layoffs more than a cause for them

MORRIS: And when we think about this moment of when the rubber meets the road, it brings us on to your next prediction, which is that AI will be an excuse for layoffs more than a cause for them.

SAFIAN: To me, I think there’s been increasing talk about how AI will dramatically change jobs for people. I think it is already doing it and it will continue to. And there’s a concern, a legitimate and I think real concern, that the whole structure of our labor force will be modulated based on how AI is implemented. But I don’t really see the use cases in such high demand right now that AI is actually going to be the cause of people losing a lot of jobs right now.

But I do think that a lot of companies may do layoffs, may consolidate, may try to right size their business because of changes in the economy or their sector. And they’ll attribute that to AI because that seems like a forward-looking positive thing, as opposed to being “Our business isn’t in good shape and so we have to pull back.” It’s better for them to frame it as being related to AI. I’m not saying people are lying. I’m just saying, for those of us who are watching these things as 2026 unfolds, I think we have to be more thoughtful and study a little bit more each time one of these announcements comes out, “What’s really at play here?”

MORRIS: In September, Marc Benioff, the CEO of Salesforce, cut 4,000 customer support jobs. He said that was because of AI agents. Now, to me, it sounded quite early of the capabilities of AI agents to fill that many roles. Do you believe him or no?

SAFIAN: Well, here’s what I’d say. Marc was on this show in 2024 a year ago, talking about his big investment in AI agents and why they thought they were going to change everything. And he floated the idea of renaming the company from Salesforce to Agentforce, which he has been floating again more recently in an interview with Bloomberg. I don’t think the uptake on Salesforce’s agent-related products has been quite as robust as he hoped they would be. Does he maybe need to pull back on some of that? How do you say is he lying or not if it’s related to the agents? I’m sure it’s related to his agent business. There’s a vested interest for him and for Salesforce in making a world of agents as talent in the future happen. I think that’s really what the motivation is of what he’s doing and the way he’s talking about it.

MORRIS: So what you were saying is we need to see the receipts from Benioff and that he should tag us on social media with the receipts and then we’ll decide.

SAFIAN: Listen, I think there are a lot of reasons why CEOs make choices and they don’t talk about all of them, but the branding and the implications of what it is – the messages, the optics can be as important as the practicalities.

MORRIS: All right, let’s move on to the next prediction. You have predicted that in 2026, cyber hacks will reach crisis level.

Copy LinkPrediction 3: Cyber hacks will reach crisis level

SAFIAN: So, here’s the thing. When I have talked to tech leaders at cybersecurity companies, they are using AI quite extensively to amplify the products that they have, the security that they can offer. And, they say they can identify and find threats that they could never find before, that it’s faster, that it’s quicker. And I don’t take issue with that. I totally believe that. At the same time, I think the quote “bad actors” have access to AI also, right? And the volume of attacks and of feints that are underway for businesses, for each of us as individuals, the scams going on, they’re growing exponentially. It’s just gotten a lot easier and cheaper to do an attack.

So the assumption of these cybersecurity firms is essentially, “My AI is better than their AI.” Right? “My AI safety is better than their AI hack.” And I’ll talk about thisn in two ways. On the one hand, yeah, they’re probably right. They’re the experts. I’m not a cybersecurity expert, so sure, they’re the experts, but not everyone can afford or is spending on the high end cybersecurity that they offer. So for smaller companies, even mid-sized companies, us as individuals, we will be more exposed because there’s going to be more stuff coming our way. The turn on that is, well, what if their AI at the expert level isn’t better than the AI of the hackers? That assumption that our AI is better than their AI, what if that’s not true? AI has tremendous power to be used for good, but it can be used for all kinds of purposes. And I think we’re going to start to see a little bit more of that as we move through 2026.

MORRIS: So you’re saying the bigger companies are always more likely, I suppose, to be a target for hacks. However, they can afford the security to withstand it better, whereas mid-level and smaller companies will be left more exposed, and therefore, will they actually be more of the targets, do you think?

SAFIAN: It’s also that as the cost of attempting a hack and getting access to these AI tools goes down, it draws more people into the field of being a bad actor. And so, while the more sophisticated folks may be like, “Yeah, I’m trying to get the big dog. I’m trying to get to the big companies.” There are a lot more people who are like, “Let me see what stuff I can pick off at some smaller level.” And, I just think that that’s what happens in a marketplace, right? Price goes down, more access comes in, more players come in, and it usually adds more competition. And in the world of competition when it comes to security, I think that puts more smaller and mid-sized businesses at more risk.

Copy LinkPrediction 4: Electricity prices will drop

MORRIS: Well, this brings us onto the next prediction, which is, electricity costs will drop. This one surprised me.

SAFIAN: Yeah. I mean, this is fairly speculative, I would say. But is inspired by me noting the volume of media attention that is going to the electricity drain that new data centers and AI is putting on the system and how it’s driving up prices. And, I want to say, AI does use a lot of energy and there are a lot of data centers being built, and those will draw on the electrical resources of any community and any economy. But there are a lot of things that draw on the electricity needs and the energy needs of a country. I worry that this is getting oversized attention. And at the same time, I think that there are other things in our electrical grid that are being updated, that are being improved. There are things that are certainly happening in the creation of new energy sources that certainly President Trump wants to drill, baby drill, as he’s been saying. So there is more supply coming in certain ways, certainly around the world. Again, local electricity prices may be one thing, but I do see the possibility for energy prices to be moderated in 2026.

MORRIS: China has really led green energy around the world. What are the stakes of the U.S. losing that race?

SAFIAN: Nationally, the United States is one of the largest producers of energy globally. And so, we are self-sufficient in our own energy needs, right? And on a global front, China needs to import energy. So this is why they have had an incentive to build their own more renewable, more local power. But they are in the process of that, as with any new endeavor, they are moving ahead faster on certain innovation. So yeah, China’s making strides and China can because they have a national policy that is geared to that. And the U.S.’s national policy right now seems to be much more to emphasize the carbon base. I think in the long run, it would be better for us to be more balanced because it seems like that’s where the rest of the world is moving, Europe also. But, that’s a decision that’s being made in a different house than the one I live in.

Copy LinkPrediction 5: U.S. immigration numbers will rise

MORRIS: Now, your next prediction, I would love to move on to, as somebody who myself has moved to the U.S., not originally from here, your next prediction is that U.S. immigration numbers will rise. Now, that goes against a lot of the noise that we’ve seen over the last year. What has inspired that?

SAFIAN: This is probably more a hope than it is a prediction. And when I look at data on the U.S. population overall, there is broad consensus that the U.S. needs to have a strong border, and also needs to have an open, fluid, and defined immigration policy. In other words, not the zero immigration that the Trump administration has been talking about and pushing. But, most Americans want there to be a way for people to come into the country, right? But, politically, it’s been hard to balance that. It’s like, if you say you want to have people come in, oh, then you don’t want a hard border. And if you say you want a hard border, oh, you can’t do the other thing. And so, we’ve been in this kind of dichotomy that is unnecessary. It is possible to have a strong border and also to be able to offer visas to people who are students who are coming into the country who we want to attract, right?

Trump has an unusual opportunity to be able to bridge that inconsistency that’s been forced on us by politics because of his credibility on the immigration issue. And at the same time, it could provide another leg for him and for his acolytes to continue to keep the middle part, the independents in the country voting his way. It could help de-fang the Democrats in trying to use some of the negative repercussions of the immigration crackdown against him, right? He could declare victory and move on to something that is a better, wiser, long-term strategy. And I’m sure Donald Trump is listening to this right now and is saying, “Bob, that’s a great idea.”

MORRIS: He loves our show. He famously loves our show.

SAFIAN: He loves our show. He loves our show.

MORRIS: The pressure though on the government to make a change like that, who does that need to come from? Do you think it’s going to be a consortium of tech companies because they need more talent from abroad or who?

SAFIAN: I think there are pressures that are going to be shared with the administration from businesses about talent that they’re having trouble getting that they want to get. I think there’s cost that’s related to the way we’re doing it now that is going to be shared. And I hope that at some point those messages do get through, because what has made America such a great place is it’s been a magnet for talent like yourself, Alex. You were not born here in the United States, right? And I think that we need to be able to keep those doors open if we want to keep America great.

Copy LinkPrediction 6: MAHA will succumb to science

MORRIS: A major thing for people when they think about the midterms is going to be healthcare. And, your next prediction is that MAHA will succumb to science. What gives you that level of, I suppose, optimism?

SAFIAN: The MAHA movement has been, to my mind, anti-science about the way they have attacked or reacted to vaccines and to certain other things. There are studies that they are pursuing underway, and I hope if those hold up to science as they should, that they might, I don’t know, reeducate, rebalance some of the assumptions that some of the MAHA that RFK Jr. feels about vaccines and some of the other things. I mean, listen, in the long run, I do believe that truth comes out and that science, done appropriately, will win. And so, I hope that this year is a turning point in that. But again, this is more hopeful than practical, Alex. I just know that despite all the layoffs and despite the pullback on funding, there are a lot of people who are working really hard on continuing scientific investigation and continuing health research. And I want to believe that those efforts will outweigh the political beliefs of the moment.

Copy LinkPrediction 7: Nuclear power will solve climate change

MORRIS: Your next prediction seems to me a little bit more long term than I imagined just this year, but it is that nuclear power will solve climate change. Talk me through this one, Bob.

SAFIAN: Listen, we always want a magic bullet to solve the intractable problems. And climate change is certainly one of our world’s most intractable problems, because even as we try to curtail our use of certain energy and certain fuels, demand continues to grow as the population does and as the affluence of the world population goes up. And so, we need a solution.  We would love, I should say, to have a solution that is not just do more with less, but is giving us the abundance that certainly a lot of people have been talking about this year, right? Nuclear power has a bad brand. So it has not been a much used technology. But, small nuclear reactors, there’s more momentum going in that direction. And the thing that’s gotten my attention, we had a conversation with someone who’s in fusion energy. Now, fusion is different than fission, right?

So for listeners, and I always get this confused myself, the nuclear power that we are used to, whether it’s nuclear weapons or nuclear power plants, that is fission that is splitting an atom. Fusion is a different technology. It’s bringing things together and releasing power. And it’s always been this apocryphal like, “Wouldn’t it be great if we could?” But, there have been advances in fusion technology, serious advances in fusion technology. My prediction really is that we’re going to look back to 2026 as the year when that technology came of age and when the seeds of a clean energy future and abundant energy future became a reality. And that will be fission, that will be small nuclear reactors, maybe it’ll be hydrogen energy. It’ll come from a variety of places, but I do think and hope that fusion has its moment in 2026, and we’re able to build on that from there.

Copy LinkPrediction 8: The U.S. will win the World Cup

MORRIS: Your final prediction, I will say, started to get a rise out of me when I first read it, because I’m a massive fan of football, and of course the World Cup is coming to North America this summer. And your prediction is that the USA will win the World Cup.

SAFIAN: Yes.

MORRIS: Explain that, because my eyebrows raised very quickly.

SAFIAN: You think England is going to win the World Cup? Is that what you’re saying, Alex?

MORRIS: I hope so. Maybe Spain, maybe Argentina, but maybe England.

SAFIAN: Let me explain my thinking on this. Team USA will not win the World Cup. I’d like to say that Team USA will win the World Cup. When I say the USA will win the World Cup, I’m really talking about the United States of America as a country, as host of this event, that this provides an opportunity for the brand of the United States to reassert, reestablish, reinforce itself globally. We’ve taken a lot of hits. There’s a lot of uncertainty overseas about what people think the United States stands for. And I do think that this global gathering provides that opportunity for the U.S. to remind the world and remind ourselves what makes us special and what responsibilities that come with that. And I’m really hopeful and looking forward to us living up to all of that as the world gets to experience the World Cup America style.

MORRIS: I will say, Bob, I am skeptical. I mean, people are not very happy that the U.S. is Americanizing parts of the World Cup by having a halftime show in the final. I just wonder how it’s going to be received. The U.S. has not necessarily made fans feel welcome yet about flying in for it, and that’s a core tenant of hosting a World Cup.

SAFIAN: Yeah. I mean, following Qatar as the host is both good and bad, right? It’s like, “Oh, these are the kinds of countries that get to host the World Cup regimes that restrict a lot of things.” Right? Or you could say that in comparison, people will be able to experience that even when things may feel somewhat more restricted in the United States, that there’s still a level of freedom and opportunity that is second to none.

Copy LinkWill business leaders speak out more?

MORRIS: The last thing that I wanted to ask you is, you’ve spoken to me about this before and you’ve spoken about it on the show, this idea that you started a career in business journalism out of this belief that business leaders could fill the gap in doing social good and making progress around the world.

SAFIAN: Yeah.

MORRIS: And, this responsibility of leaders has diminished in the last couple of years. Do you feel like this year, will we see the pendulum start to swing back, or not really?

SAFIAN: I’ve always felt like business is a vehicle for progress and that businesses run the right way, can be a vehicle for progress. And I’ve tried to build my career around encouraging businesses and business leaders to use that mantle for good. In 2026, will we see more public voicing of business leaders stepping out of their lane, so to speak? I don’t necessarily see that. I don’t necessarily think that’s a bad thing, provided that within their lane, within their organization, they are living to their values and they are encouraging their people and their teams and running their business in a way that is ethical and forward-looking. And I do think, and believe, and hope that that will continue to happen. Part of the reason I was drawn to business journalism as opposed to political journalism was because I thought politics had a lot of talk, but not enough happened. And, whereas in business, it was happening all the time. And in many ways, that politics followed business, not the other way around.

The last year has been an aberration in that, because of the activist nature of the Trump administration. But I think in America in the long run, it will come back to businesses being the driver and government following. And, I don’t think that’s a bad thing necessarily. And certainly to have it be a balance, I think, is what’s really the most healthy.

MORRIS: Well, Bob, that was so fun going through those predictions with you. Thank you so much. And hey, happy New Year.

SAFIAN: Oh, to you too and to all our listeners. We really appreciate it.